I feel the need the need for speed
Remember that line from Top Gun? A great line from a great film. Ok, maybe not so great a film but still a great line.
But does it work for horse racing? Does the fastest horse always win?
The answer simply is no and also yes. No It does not always work and no the fastest horse does not always win and yes on the day the fastest horse does win.
The problem is that just because it is the fastest horse on the day does not mean that it is the fastest horse overall.
But why? If a horse is faster than the other horses in the race, should it not automatically be the best horse in the race? Once again no.
The reason lies in tactics and the need for some horses to lie up behind horses. To be covered up. I'm sure you have heard race commentators saying this time and time again.
This is a requirement of all too many horses. Remember horses are herd animals and their instinct is to run with the herd. It is often apparent that a horse performs best when it is covered up during a race. Once it is exposed it runs green or expends a huge amount of nervous energy which causes the animal to under perform and lose the race.
Another disadvantage of having a horse that requires to be covered up is that the pace of the race can be slow, especially in small fields, which allows less talented competitors to be in with a chance in the final furlong.
When a race develops into a sprint in the last couple of furlongs, a lot depends on the gaps coming at the right time and so it is not always the fastest horse that wins the race but the horse who can quicken the best off the slow pace and/or the horse that gets the first run.
You have to understand that there is a major difference between a horse who can cover 5 furlongs the fastest and a horse who can quicken appreciably in the last couple of furlongs off a slow pace.
On the one hand you have a horse who can maintain a very fast pace but who may not have the ability to change gears and accelerate at the end of a race. (If you can find a horse who can do this pay special attention as you will have found a real money spinner.)
On the other hand you have a horse who cannot maintain a very fast pace but who can change gears and accelerate at the end of slow run race.
This allows a slower horse to win in tactically run slow races. Any race with six or less runners runs the risk of being tactical. Look for a front runner who has clocked a fast time or who has the proven ability to quicken appreciably at the end of a race.
You will most likely be looking at the winner as he will be able to dictate the pace and when he quickens at the end of the race he will be difficult to catch.
But what about big field handicaps
Things change in favour of the fast horse when he is faced with big field handicaps. The pace is usually frenetic which allows the horse with the high crusing speed to lay up with the pace and because they are already going a strong pace he/she does not have to quicken all that much to reach top speed.
By: E G Gordon
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